December 18, 2013

Bitcoin 40000 or Dow 40000

During the heydays of the bubble, in 1999, the author David Elias released the book Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History. The back of the book says:
Founded on the belief that the stock market remains the best vehicle for building wealth over time. Dow 40,000 is nothing less than a guidebook to building wealth in the coming decades. Dow 40,000 reviews the economic forces destined to catapult the Dow Jones Industrials Average to 40,000 by the year 2016.
The Dow Jones peaked at around 12,000 in the beginning of 2001 and trades at the end of 2013 at 16,000. The probability that it will reach 40,000 in 2016 is not zero but very close to zero.   

If you've seen the Facebook movie, you've also know who the Winklevoss twins are. After the movie ended, they have become true Bitcoin enthusiasts. One of the twins predicted the future of the so-called new currency (Mashable):
"Small bull case scenario for Bitcoin is a 400 billion USD dollar market cap, so 40,000 USD a coin, but I believe it could be much larger. When this will happen, if it happens, I don't know, but if it happens, it will probably happen much faster than anyone imagines."

I wonder if Bitcoin 40,000 will describe Bitcoin in the same way as Dow 40,000 described the bubble? What is certain is that Bitcoin's price chart looks like a typical bubble.